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Tuesday July 20, 09:18
Economic relief from Greenspan. Part 2.
(by Helen Russon)

(by Helen Russon)
 
    On Tuesday, U.S. lawmakers are to hear out Alan Greenspan on the significance of a June slowdown, but economists expect the Federal Reserve chief to put all the blame on a summer lull and stress that the economy is practically well. He's scheduled to deliver the central bank's semi- annual report on the economy and monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee at 2:30 p.m. Washington time. With the November presidential election campaign in full swing, Democrats and Republicans will try and draw Greenspan into the debate over whether the recovery is too slow to rebuild the labor market or is responding nicely to Bush administration tax cuts.  Greenspan will present a revised version of Federal Open Market Committee members' forecasts for inflation, growth and employment for 2004, and a new forecast for 2005.
Greenspan's appearance before the Senate Banking Committee is his first since the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate last month for the first time in four years. The Fed said then it can raise rates at a ``measured'' pace because recent inflation was ``transitory.''
    Greenspan, 78, was elected for his fifth term as Fed chairman last month. Since he became Fed Chairman in 1987, Greenspan has increased the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points 19 times, and by 50 basis points five times. He raised it by 75 basis points once, in 1994.
    In fact, the U.S. central bank already has begun dismantling the exceptionally simulative policy it initiated in 2001 -- a policy that took its official federal funds rate down in 13 stages to a 1958 low of 1 percent by June 2003. At its last meeting on June 29-30, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee raised rates for the first time in four years, by a quarter percentage point to 1 1/4 percent, in what was seen as the first of several "measured" hikes.
    The economy clearly lost momentum in June -- retail sales fell, industrial production slipped and job creation came in below forecasts -- but there were early signs of improvement in July and policymakers are confident the elements of lasting expansion are intact.
    Last February, the committee expected the personal consumption expenditures price index to rise between 1 percent and 1.5 percent from the fourth-quarter of 2003 to the final quarter of this year. The FOMC will release the range of its 19 members' inflation estimates, as well as a so-called central tendency, or midpoint of the forecasts. Inflation as measured by the PCE index rose at a 3.7 percent annualized rate for the three months ending May, up from 2.2 percent in February and 1.3 percent in November.
    Some Fed officials say June's figures were an aberration and that the economy continues to expand. Economists said they expect Greenspan also will underscore the Fed's view that some of the recent upward pressure on prices is due to temporary factors.
 

 

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