The Federal Open Market Committee is forecast to raise the key US rate by a quarter-point to 2.75% in its statement due at 2:15 p.m. EST today.
This move in the Fed funds rate is expected to come as one step in the series of «measured» quarter-point increases that Fed has been following since raising the rates for the first time in June 2004. Now expectations hinge on whether the Fed will take steps to abandon its «measured» policy and omit the recently favorite word from its statement. This could mean that a half-point rise in in store at the next meeting.
"I don’t disagree that the Fed will at some point change the ’measured’ language," said senior economist Anthony Chan of JPMorgan Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio.
"But I don’t necessarily think they need to change it now because both the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the core CPI (consumer prices excluding food and energy costs) are below levels in prior expansions," he added.
The policy makers are expected to continue with the debate on the necessity of inflation targeting started in February. Most of the committee members, including Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, are opposed to targeting, while five out of twelve Fed Presidents and two Washington-based governors support it. Among the latter group is Ben Bernanke, who is often named as Greenspan’s successor after the 79-year-old Fed chief retires next January.
The Fed will be able to use one more indicator to decide on the inflation levels. The Labor Department is due to release data on February producer, or wholesale, prices at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT).