Recently analysts and investors all over the world are guessing a riddle: when and how will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raise basic interest rates in the U.S. Presently, it is no secret that it will happen today – June 30. Most likely, new interest rates will constitute 25 basic points, thus raising up to 1.25% - this figure has already been included into the price of basic financial instruments and is expected by basic mass of market makers.

What next? To crack this hard nut it’s necessary to analyze weekly macroeconomic data and market participants’ sentiments.

The report on consumer confidence, published yesterday, showed that index reached its peak for the last two years: namely, its rise in June constitutes 101.9 against 93.1 in May. April and May saw the significant growth of nonfarm payrolls: 346,000 и 248,000 accordingly. This index for June will be presented on Friday. The number of nonfarm payrolls is expected to be 250,000. In May, consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) have also reached high level (0.6% and 0.8% accordingly).

Indexes listed above have strong influence on the market. Just yesterday, index of consumer confidence triggered the fall in gold market by $9 (to $391 for ounce). Bond market experienced the same: 10-year bonds have fallen in price and its yield rise up to 4.75%.

Thus, it is most likely that Federal Reserve will level up interest rates today and, thereby, will put an end to 12-months period of lowest interest rates for 45 years. According to forecasts, interest rates could rise up to 2.25% this year and reach 3.75%-4% by the end of the next year. On the one hand this will adversely affect the cost of operation with corporate bonds (the issue of corporate bonds came down for more than 40% during previous six months). On the other hand, the rise of interest rates would positively affect sentiments of overseas investors, which put up money in government-papers of the U.S., thus triggering the seductiveness of such liabilities. In that case, it would be easier for the government of the U.S. to settle its external debt and to attract extra injections into national economy.