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Wednesday January 26, 09:16
Crude fell but may later break $50 on disruption and expansion in China
(by Julia Jenson)

Crude fell but may later break $50 on disruption and expansion in China

Oil futures edged up Tuesday on worries about supply disruptions in oil-producing nations, refinery snag in the US and news of surging economic growth in China.

On Wednesday crude oil futures for March delivery took a pause and fell $0.36 to $49.28 a barrel.


Talks with Nigerian oil-worker unions failed to avert a strike that is likely to begin as the conflict in Africa’s largest oil producer that supplies 2.5 million barrels of oil a day escalates.

"The dispute is over cutting workers benefits," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service, and "if this strike goes through, we risk losing almost 500,000 barrels a day in production."

China’s economic growth surged to 9.5% in the 2004 fourth quarter, beating analysts’ expectations. The increase may turn out to be unwelcome for a government that seeks to cool expansion through tax policies and tight monetary controls in a nation that lived with growth rates that averaged 9.4% since China started reforms in 1978. Quicker-than-expected economic growth promises to boost demand for oil and other raw materials.

Violence in Iraq is expected to increase in anticipation of the January 30 elections.

Another concern was the fire at ConocoPhillips’ Alliance refinery in Louisiana that caused a reduction in fuel output.

``Prices are feeding off a lot of bad news like the cold weather, the refinery fire and impending elections in Iraq,’’ said Fred Lackman, an independent oil trader in Toronto, Canada. ``I’m looking at New York closing over $50 today.’’

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